Wednesday, November 7, 2018
End of Night
Democrats regain House, and I'm ok with that.
Senate was long shot.
Democrats have young, diverse bench established in place.
Kamala Harris
Beto O'Rourke
For 2020 IF Joe Biden doesn't run.
Our democracy is in trouble and our republic is on the line.
Republicans and their urgency to hold white majority will stop at nothing, Georgia is perfect example, to keep power. Mark my words, they will be the end of this nation.
Tuesday, November 6, 2018
Missouri Senate
We're going to lose Missouri, sadly.
Senator Claire McCaskill is one of the few moderates willing to reach across the aisle and get legislation done.
Senator Claire McCaskill is one of the few moderates willing to reach across the aisle and get legislation done.
CNN calls House for Democrats
CNN officially calls House for Democrats!
It's on tRump.
Your days of careening America into a dictatorial banana republic are over.
It's on tRump.
Your days of careening America into a dictatorial banana republic are over.
Senate and House
As expected, Republicans will hold control of Senate and likely gain, especially since it looks like Florida will flip.
But House looks like it will certainly flip to Democrats, so at least there will be some accountability to this administration. Speaker Pelosi will wield the gavel of power and allow the House to do their job and perform checks and balances over the executive branch.
Arizona and Nevada Predictions
I'm beginning to have doubts about Arizona and Nevada Senate race, even before any results come in. If they trend like Florida and Georgia, at least.
If they trend close, like Texas is, it could be another story.
I expected to lose a seat or two in Senate in regards to incumbents. I didn't expect to lose a lot.
If they trend close, like Texas is, it could be another story.
I expected to lose a seat or two in Senate in regards to incumbents. I didn't expect to lose a lot.
Kansas
Kansas trending Democrat on Governor's race.
Unreal.
Until you look at the trickle-down scam the GOP ran there, ruining the state.
Unreal.
Until you look at the trickle-down scam the GOP ran there, ruining the state.
Hijkacking of a Once Great Nation
Gerrymandering and blatant voter suppression is impossible to overcome.
STOP TRUSTING, BELIEVING, or RELYING on POLLS
If there's anything we need to learn is that polls are wholly wrong is every case.
They were largely wrong in 2016 and they're more wrong this year.
With cell phones and other methods of reaching people, phone polling is not going to work here forward.
We must stop using this method and rest on our efforts.
That said, it looks like the most surprising places are going to shock us. Texas is trending blue and I think the Beto-effect needs to be implemented nationwide. Candidates must steer away from relying on celebrity and political endorsements, especially in Democratic races. Republicans are much more swayed as they don't have any real convictions except those they are scared into thinking.
They were largely wrong in 2016 and they're more wrong this year.
With cell phones and other methods of reaching people, phone polling is not going to work here forward.
We must stop using this method and rest on our efforts.
That said, it looks like the most surprising places are going to shock us. Texas is trending blue and I think the Beto-effect needs to be implemented nationwide. Candidates must steer away from relying on celebrity and political endorsements, especially in Democratic races. Republicans are much more swayed as they don't have any real convictions except those they are scared into thinking.
Hope on the House
My only hopes to save America are on the House.
If we can't regain control of the House, not only are Democrats tucked, but so is America.
If we can't regain control of the House, not only are Democrats tucked, but so is America.
Really, America?
If what I'm seeing is what America has truly become, I don't want to be associated with it.
White racists fearful of non-whites treating them how they've treated them for centuries and god damn fucking Christian right wing anti-gay, anti-abortion nutjobs forcing their beliefs on the rest of us through legislation is unacceptable.
I don't trust that our elections aren't still be compromised by Russian efforts, especially since this administration won't hold anyone accountable.
White racists fearful of non-whites treating them how they've treated them for centuries and god damn fucking Christian right wing anti-gay, anti-abortion nutjobs forcing their beliefs on the rest of us through legislation is unacceptable.
I don't trust that our elections aren't still be compromised by Russian efforts, especially since this administration won't hold anyone accountable.
Unreal
Other than Indiana, so far Democrats holding most Senate seats.
Likely to lose North Dakota and Missouri.
But tonight is a complete mindfuck.
No surprise Governor Cuomo in New York wins.
Duck.
Marsha Blackburn wins Tennessee.
The night may be over.
Likely to lose North Dakota and Missouri.
But tonight is a complete mindfuck.
No surprise Governor Cuomo in New York wins.
Duck.
Marsha Blackburn wins Tennessee.
The night may be over.
A Nightmare?
Indiana a GOP pick-up
Ohio Governor is trending back on the GOP side
Kentucky House district with Barr and McGrath, looks like she isn't winning that one.
Ohio Governor is trending back on the GOP side
Kentucky House district with Barr and McGrath, looks like she isn't winning that one.
8:42 PM
This evening is too close for me.
Florida is most shocking, especially since every poll showed Gilliam far ahead. I'm holding out for South Florida.
Rick Scott leading is surprising.
Joe Mancini may win with his closest election. We need to start thinking about writing West Virginia off.
Half the vote in and Beto is leading Ted by 200K votes.
Ohio 12
Ohio 12th looking like it might flip after the contentious special election earlier this year.
Danny O'Connor leading Troy Balderson
Danny O'Connor leading Troy Balderson
Florida
As is often said of Florida and Ohio, Florida is proving true.
As goes Florida, so goes the nation.
Tracking the same on Governor and Senate with 90% GOP candidates leading.
But the bulk of the outstanding vote comes from South Florida, where Democrats hold a sizeable advantage.
Mid-Evening
All politics used to be local.
Tribalism has greatly changed that.
The night isn't looking at blue as I might have hoped.
But in fairness, I was reluctant after 2016 to speculate.
Tribalism has greatly changed that.
The night isn't looking at blue as I might have hoped.
But in fairness, I was reluctant after 2016 to speculate.
Early Texas
Early Texas Beto O'Rourke leading.
Florida Senate and Governor just tightened dramatically, a little too quickly, too. Kind of suspicious.
Ohio Governor has closed a little, too.
Florida Senate and Governor just tightened dramatically, a little too quickly, too. Kind of suspicious.
Ohio Governor has closed a little, too.
Georgia
Very early results appear insurmountable for Stacey Abrams.
If she loses by large numbers, this year it would be important to do an investigation for this race.
Kemp has been one of the worst in the nation for voter fraud while pointing fingers at Democrats for doing it, the exact thing that most cheaters do to draw attention away from themselves.
If she loses by large numbers, this year it would be important to do an investigation for this race.
Kemp has been one of the worst in the nation for voter fraud while pointing fingers at Democrats for doing it, the exact thing that most cheaters do to draw attention away from themselves.
Governor Races
The governors races were largely overlooked and this works in favor of Democrats. Its important, too, because 2020 will hold the redistricting gavel and a Democratic governor can veto the gerrymandering.
Likely to switch to Democrat
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Michigan
Wisconsin
Florida
Georgia (maybe)
At this moment, CNN & MSNBC are calling Ohio senate race, my home state, for incumbent Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown.
Likely to switch to Democrat
Ohio
Pennsylvania
Michigan
Wisconsin
Florida
Georgia (maybe)
At this moment, CNN & MSNBC are calling Ohio senate race, my home state, for incumbent Democratic Senator Sherrod Brown.
States to Watch for Democratic Control of Senate
Tennessee, Texas, Nevada, Arizona- if Democrats can turn these four, it's the ballgame for the entire Congress.
Texas and Tennessee are unreal hopes, but two good candidates and anti-Trump sentiment nationwide are driving them closer than normal. Also, Marsha Blackburn's role in the opioid crisis could repulse some of the suburban women voters who know someone or have lost someone to opium addiction.
That said, Democrats must hold onto Indiana, which isn't look good, and Florida.
MSNBC calling VA-10 to Jennifer Wexler, a Democratic pick-up, defeating Barbara Comstock.
Democrats on Pace to Retake House
Early exit polls showing 61% of first time voters are breaking for Democrats.
This is good news for Democrats.
Democrats seem to be trending together in a good number of states, including Florida and Ohio in early results.
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